I'm not a fan of financial plans that use straight-line projections or Monte Carlo risk analysis to support ... then active management to outperform low-cost index funds will fail over time.

Also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy ... The gambler’s fallacy can also affect risk management decisions. Leaders may underestimate risks after a series of positive outcomes, assuming that ...

There are steps you can take to maximize your chances of success. Monte Carlo Analysis, for example. What’s that, you say? Read on. What is a Monte Carlo Analysis and How Does It Apply to ...